The idea that we are evolved
The idea that we are evolved to make frequency judgments, not probability calculations, is supported by evidence that we use frequencies as inputs and outputs for our likelihood estimates. We automatically notice and remember the frequency of events (input) and have subjective feelings of confidence that an event will or will not occur (output).
If you rephrase the Monty Hall problem in terms of frequencies, rather than in terms of a one-off decision, people are more likely to get it right.5 Here’s a short version of the same problem, but focusing explicitly on frequencies rather than one-off probabilities. Is it easier to grasp intuitively?
Take the same routine as beforethree doors, one prize, and two duds. But this time consider two different ways of playing the game, represented here by two players, Tom and Helen. Tom always chooses one door and sticks with it. Helen is assigned the other two doors. Monty always lets out a goat from behind one of these two doors, and Helen gets the prize if it is behind the remaining door. They play the game, say, 30 times. How often is it likely Tom will win the prize? How often is it likely Helen will win the prize? Given this, which is the better strategy, Tom’s (stick) or Helen’s (switch)?
Taken from : Mind Hacks
